OSCARS 2019 Predictions -by Malcolm Waite

OSCARS 2019 Predictions

Here I will give you all my predictions for the 2019 Oscars, and I will be doing this in a certain format.  For each category, I will say who will most likely win, who could win (basically an upset) and who should win. Two of these can overlap, and lots of them will…so without further ado…let’s dive into these.

 

Best Supporting Actress

Nominees:

Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)

Amy Adams (Vice)

Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)

Emma Stone (The Favourite)

Marina De Tavira (Roma)

 

Who will win:

This category is kind of all over the place. Almost none of the guilds have matched up, and Regina King wasn’t nominated for a SAG, which is the main precursor for actors.  Yet Regina King is still barely the front runner, although there is no very clear front runner.

 

Who Could win:

Rachel Weisz, because she won the BAFTA and has been nominated for everything, yet she hasn’t beaten a Regina King.

 

Who should win:

Regina King. Her role was phenomenal and very relevant within the #MeToo era.

 

Best Supporting Actor

Nominees:

Mahershala Ali (Green Book)

Sam Elliott (A Star Is Born)

Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)

Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman)

Sam Rockwell (Vice)

 

Who will win:

Mahershala Ali. He hasn’t lost anything.

 

Who could win:

Sam Elliott. I feel like the Academy wants to honor A Star Is Born in some way plus they haven’t given an actor an Oscar this close together since the 90s.

 

Who should win:

Sam Elliott. He has one scene in a car where he just acts with his face and express emotion perfectly. That is Oscar worthy.

 

Best Sound Editing

Nominees:

A Quiet Place

Bohemian Rhapsody

Black Panther

First Man

Roma

 

Who Will Win: A Quiet Place. It won the sound editors guild plus this is its sole nomination

 

Who could win: First Man. The academy may want to honor it and this is all it’s up for.

 

Who should win: A Quiet Place. Just so unique.

 

Best Sound Mixing

Nominations:

Black Panther

Bohemian Rhapsody

First Man

Roma

A Star Is Born

 

Who will win: Bohemian Rhapsody. It won the sound mixers guild and really hasn’t lost

 

Who could win: A Star Is Born. This award usually goes to the music movies yet this one hasn’t really picked anything up

 

Who should win: Bohemian Rhapsody. Rami Malek’s singing voice is dubbed, and most of the time you can’t ever tell.

 

Production Design

Nominees:

Black Panther

First Man

The Favourite

Mary Poppins Returns

Roma

 

Who will win: Roma. The Academy just loves the look of this film as evidenced by the cinematography nomination

 

Who could win: Black Panther. The academy clearly loves Wakanda, but it is unlikely more so than Roma.

 

Who should win: Roma. It encapsulates the 70s perfectly.

 

Best Adapted Screenplay

Nominees:

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

Can You Ever Forgive Me?

If Beale Street Could Talk

A Star Is Born

BlacKkKlansman

 

Who will win: BlacKkKlansman. This is an honorary award for Spike Lee, and it has just been racking up almost everything.

 

Who could win: A Star Is Born. The academy may want to honor this film in a major way, and it is a long shot in most other major categories so they might award it this one.

 

Who should win: If Beale Street Could Talk. This film has the most authentic dialogue of 2018 by a long shot.

 

Best Original Screenplay

Nominees:

The Favourite

First Reformed

Green Book

Roma

Vice

 

Who will win: Most likely The Favourite with its very unique twist on history.

 

Who could win: First Reformed. The writer of this film is long overdue for an Oscar, having written Taxi Driver and Raging Bull.

 

Who should win: The Favourite. Just crazy original.

 

Best Animated Feature

Nominees:

Spider Man: Into The Spider Verse

Incredibles 2

Isle of Dogs

Mirai

Ralph Breaks The Internet

 

Will Win: Spider Man: Into the Spider Verse. Hasn’t lost anything

 

Could Win: Incredibles 2 just because the academy loves Pixar

 

Should Win: Spider Man: Into the Spider Verse. Just a near perfect movie and the best Spider-Man movie, and this is coming from a hardcore Spider-Man fan.

 

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Nominees:

Vice

Border

Mary Queen of Scots

 

Will Win: Vice. Only nominee here the academy loves.

 

Could win: I guess Mary Queen of Scots could win, but it won’t.

 

Should win: Vice. At first glance I couldn’t tell that was Christian Bale!

 

Best Costume Design

Nominees:

The Favourite

Mary Poppins Returns

Black Panther

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

Mary Queen of Scots

 

Will Win: Probably The Favourite. The Academy loves their period pieces.

 

Could Win: Black Panther. While The Favourite probably will win, the academy will honor Black Panther in some way, and this is one of the most likely.

 

Should Win: Black Panther. While The Favourite has great costumes, Black Panther’s are just so unique.

 

Best Original Score

Nominees:

Black Panther

BlacKkKlansman

If Beale Street Could Talk

Isle of Dogs

Mary Poppins Returns

 

Will Win: If Beale Street Could Talk. Now that First Man is out, this is very likely.

 

Could Win: Black Panther. The academy will commemorate this film in one category, it is just not certain which one

 

Should Win: If Beale Street Could Talk. Even if you are just an average moviegoer, when you leave the theater you will be humming this beautiful score.

 

Best Original Song

Nominees:

A Star Is Born

RBG

Mary Poppins Returns

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

Black Panther

 

Will Win: Shallow from A Star Is Born. This is the easiest pick of the night.

 

Could Win: Maybe All The Stars from Black Panther but it is very unlikely.

 

Should Win: Shallow, just works phenomenally in the films plot.

 

Best Visual Effects

Nominees:

Avengers: Infinity War

Christopher Robin

Solo: A Star Wars Story

First Man

Ready Player One

 

Will Win: Avengers: Infinity War. Hasn’t lost too much.

 

Could Win: First Man. It is the only film out of these that is an Oscar bait one, so that could help it.

 

Should Win: Avengers: Infinity War. You really believe Thanos is a real person and that is something to behold.

 

Best Film Editing

Nominees:

Bohemian Rhapsody

Vice

BlacKkKlansman

The Favourite

Green Book

 

Will Win: Bohemian Rhapsody. The editors guild has picked this film, and since all the other winners were split this makes this film the front runner.

 

Could Win: BlacKkKlansman could win with its really cool and showy ending.

 

Should Win: I have since changed my opinion on Bohemian Rhapsody’s editing for one reason: The Live aid performance. It is edited to look exactly like the footage taped there, and that requires precision-cut editing.

 

Best Foreign Language Film

Nominees:

Roma

Cold War

Never Look Away

Capernaum

Shoplifters

 

Will Win: Roma. It is many people’s pick for best picture, so it wouldn’t make sense if it didn’t win here.

 

Could Win: Cold War, just with its director and cinematography nominations.

 

Should Win: Roma. Just beautiful.

 

Best Documentary Feature

Nominees:

RBG

Free Solo

Hale County This Morning, This Evening

Minding the Gap

Of Fathers and Sons

 

Will Win: Free Solo. It recently won at the BAFTAS so that gives it a huge chance

 

Could Win: RBG, with its political message and its sound nomination, the academy will sure love this film.

 

Should Win: Free Solo. It is just amazing what this man did and how the filmed it.

 

Best Animated Short

Nominees:

Bao

Late Afternoon

One Small Step

Animal Behavior

Weekends

 

Will Win: Bao. Pixar dominates this category.

 

Could Win: Animal Behaviour with its unique creativity.

 

Should Win: Bao. Easily the most heartwarming of these stories.

 

Best Live Action Short

Nominees:

Marguerite

Fauve

Madre

Detainment

Skin

 

Will Win: Marguerite with its very unique take.

 

Could Win: Fauve, with just a slight chance.

 

Should Win: Marguerite, just because it is so unique.

 

Best Documentary Short

Nominees:

Black Sheep

End Game

Lifeboat

A Night at the Garden

Period. End of sentence

 

Will Win: Period. End of Sentence because their campaigner worked for Harvey Weinstein and gained many Oscar wins using her methods.

 

Could Win: Black Sheep with its unique tale of violence.

 

Should Win: Black Sheep. It depicts hate in such a realistic and grounded way.

 

Best Cinematography

Nominees:

The Favourite

Never Look Away

Cold War

Roma

A Star Is Born

 

Will Win: Roma. It has only lost one award and this is the only nominee that has been constantly talked about for this category.

 

Could Win: Cold War. It beat Roma at the cinematographers guild, so it actually has a shot.

 

Should win: Roma. It is just stunning and beautiful. You could have pictures from this movie posted in an art gallery and people would praise them.

 

Best Actor In a Leading Role

Nominees:

Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born)

Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)

Christian Bale (Vice)

Viggo Mortensen (Green Book)

Willem Dafoe (At Eternity’s Gate)

 

Will Win: Rami Malek. He has only lost one award, and that was to a Christian Bale at the Critics choice awards.

 

Could Win: Bradley Cooper. It may be surprising that I am placing his chances above a Christian Bale’s. This is because Bradley Cooper wasn’t nominated for best director, and so he could gain many sympathy votes because it isn’t likely he will win anything else.

 

Should Win: Bradley Cooper. For one main reason, he actually sang all of his songs live and it was basically a concert. Rami Malek’s singing voice was dubbed with Freddie Mercury’s and Marc Martel’s. He also portrays alcoholism in a very sensitive and truthful way.

 

Best Actress In a Leading Role

Nominees:

Olivia Colman (The Favourite)

Glenn Close (The Wife)

Lady Gaga (A Star is Born)

Yalitza Aparicio (Roma)

Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)

 

Will Win: Glenn Close. She has only lost the BAFTA, yet she has only been nominated over there two times and at the Oscars it’s been seven, so they are going to give her a life achievement award.

 

Could Win: Olivia Colman is the only one to have beaten her, so she’s the only one with a shot against her.

 

Should Win: Olivia Colman is just delightful and hilarious in every scene she is in, so I’d give it to her slightly over Close.

 

Best Director

Nominees:

Paweł Pawlikowski (Cold War)

Adam McKay (Vice)

Alfonso Cuarón (Roma)

Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite)

Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman)

 

Will Win: Alfonso Cuarón hasn’t lost at any precursor, so he should take it.

 

Could Win: Spike Lee has a decent shot because this is his first best director nomination and he has been known to have been severely overlooked in this category.

 

Should Win: Alfonso Cuarón just directs his movie. It is beautiful, and he pulls an Oscar worthy performance out of a school teacher, so he should take it.

 

Best Picture

Nominees:

Black Panther

Bohemian Rhapsody

BlacKkKlansman

The Favourite

Vice

A Star is Born

Green Book

Roma

 

Will Win: There is actually no clear front runner for best picture this year. However, I am actually predicting an upset this year just because of how wide open the race is. I predict BlacKkKlansman will take the top award, for a flurry of reasons. For one, this movie has no controversy, and Green Book just has more than I could count and Roma is a Netflix film, so that is unattractive to older voters. Another reason it could win is because the academy could award Spike Lee with a big award for all of the times they have overlooked him,

 

Could Win: Most people’s perceived front runner, Roma, has only lost at the PGA’s to Green Book. Still, I think this has the second highest chance of winning.

 

Should Win: A Star Is Born. This is because it is the all around best film. Out of the performances, this film has the most great ones, I believe some great authentic dialogue yet still surpassed in this aspect by If Beale Street Could Talk, and some great editing, set design, cinematography, and the list just goes on. Best picture should be the all around best film, and A Star Is Born is that.

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